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澳门金沙网上赌场娱乐:Boshi Fund Wei Fengchun: A-share valuation near historical lows can be actively configured

时间:2018/2/23 18:37:04  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: One week before the Spring Festival, major international stock markets generally rebounded and the US stock market turned from sentiment to...

One week before the Spring Festival, major international stock markets generally rebounded and the US stock market turned from sentiment to fundamentals. In commodities, Brent Crude, Non-ferrous metals rebounded in line with the stock market. Due to the holiday season, the domestic steel, coal and other transactions were light, social stocks have accumulated, but the price is generally stable before the holiday. Due to the loose supply and repression of stocks, the oil price is too weak to run Agricultural products By US price data than-expected rise, announced infrastructure projects as well as hawkish comments from Fed officials, US Treasury yields have jumped during the Spring Festival, the dollar amid concerns about the US fiscal deficit continues to weaken, inflation expectations due to precious metals Strengthen and rise slightly. Money market exceeded expectations easing during the Spring Festival, and the domestic bond market rebounded slightly.

Looking ahead this week, the United States CPI overseas in January and core CPI growth surpassed expectations, the market is also expected Fed will raise interest rates at a faster speed, 10Y US Treasury yields were up to 2.87%, US stocks do not fall up instead, anxious before the show This has been reflected in the decline, and the short-term impact on the global market is expected to be modest. In January 2018, the growth rate of social financing in China remained at a markedly lower level than in the past 12 months. There was no change in the thinking of top management on reducing leverage. In the fourth quarter, there was no change in the guidance on monetary policy in the monetary policy report. At the same time, the central bank was more satisfied with the current credit conditions and attached great importance to the fluctuations in overseas markets. The expected difference related to the current economic growth has already been partially bridged. The reform of state-owned enterprises may accelerate the pace of personnel and institutional adjustment before and after the two sessions.

Roller coaster car market in early 2018 is both surprising and intriguing. On the one hand, the fundamentals of economic growth and the expectation of change still exist. It is clear that the upward momentum in the market has not completely subsided. On the other hand, optimistic expectations on the economy and policies have indeed more into the valuation of US stocks, the estimated impact of raising interest rates is indeed inadequate. Revaluation of the domestic stock market as the main line, although the idea of ??continuing the defense, but consistent with the cyclical fluctuations in the international market, naturally dragged down by it. Looking ahead, US stocks are still slightly more expensive relative to corporate profits. A-share valuations are close to historic lows. In the medium term, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks may have diverged. After the pre-holiday plunge and the rebound in the peripheral post-holiday stock markets, the domestic stock market is expected to get out of adjustment. The proposals for the allocation of rights and interests should be kept active. The configuration of the bond market should give due consideration to both defensive and offensive capabilities.

Specifically, the A-share plunge pre-holiday slump is mainly the external market sentiment and consistent after the reversal of emotional stampede, but by the performance and deleveraging, pledge shocks in the first small-medium-term stock index steady, indicating that the negative feedback loop or Towards the end. Consider the external stock market's first rebound, it is recommended to raise the A-share positions, but not aggressive, the configuration is still based on finance, cycle and consumption.

Hong Kong stock market was adversely affected both inside and outside the sharp adjustment before the holiday. Considering the fundamentals of valuation and profitability, we suggest increasing the allocation ratio of Hong Kong stocks. From a structural perspective, the Hang Seng HSCEI with a lower valuation and a near-term adjustment will be relatively better. Due to the influence of financial regulation, inflation expectation and external interest rate

, the long-term government bond yield will remain at a high level. However, the economic fundamentals do not support the further rise of the government bond yield. Medium and long-term financial bonds have emerged better value and security configuration, bond configuration recommendations both defensive and offensive, medium and long-term financial bonds opening jiacang.

As crude supply and demand fundamentals continue to improve and production cuts officially extended to 2018, optimistic about the oil prices central slow rise. The sharp rise in the short-lived oil drilling in the United States and the continuous rise of the U.S. crude oil production will further aggravate the market's concern about excess supply, which will limit the oil price increase.





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